Fine Structure

Gladwell Preprint on Predicting Performance

An early look at next week's New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell about predicting future behavior based on current performance, or how hard it is to predict future behavior based on current performance.

He doesn't cover any science examples at all but I imagine it would be very similar to his example of how financial advisers are selected, essentially by seeing how dedicated they are through time spent being productive. This seems to have some curious parallels for a comparison between the lazy everyman and successful people.